Ph.D. Proposal

Melek D. Ozcan

(Professor Dimitri Mavris)

Tuesday, December 9

10:30 a.m.

Weber, CoVE

Abstract:

Achieving the aviation sector's 2050 net-zero goal relies on a high-risk transition to revolutionary aircraft powered by non-drop-in fuels, such as hydrogen and liquefied natural gas. However, current decarbonization roadmaps are often built on deterministic vehicle performance estimates and idealized stakeholder timelines, obscuring the profound uncertainties inherent in this socio-technical shift. This thesis addresses this gap by developing a probabilistic decision framework to support strategic prioritization among fuel pathways. The research integrates two methodological phases: first, probabilistic conceptual aircraft sizing to replace static literature values with physics-based performance distributions; and second, a hybrid Agent-Based Modeling and Game Theory environment to simulate interdependent stakeholder decisions and quantify stochastic entry-into-service delays. By synthesizing these technical and systemic uncertainties, the proposed framework provides policymakers with a holistic, data-driven tool to mitigate risk and guide the industry toward a feasible net-zero future.

Committee:
Dr. Dimitri Mavris (advisor), School of Aerospace Engineering
Dr. Daniel P. Schrage, School of Aerospace Engineering
Dr. Graeme J. Kennedy, School of Aerospace Engineering
Dr. Richard A. Wahls, NASA
Dr. Burak Bagdatli,